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Asian stocks fell for a fourth consecutive day as stronger-than-expected US jobs data dampened expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, while oil prices surged to a four-month high following new US sanctions on Russia's oil industry. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.1%, with significant declines in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea, as Chinese shares continued to slide despite record export figures. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against major currencies, and bond yields rose in response to the shifting market dynamics.
This week, major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America are set to report earnings, alongside tech and healthcare firms like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and UnitedHealth Group. Key economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index will be released, providing insights into inflation trends, while several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak ahead of the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
Investors should brace for increased market volatility in January as Donald Trump prepares to return to office, according to Yardeni Research. Recent fluctuations were influenced by the Federal Open Market Committee's revised projections for interest rate cuts, which were reduced from four to two by 2025. However, optimism returned after comments from Federal Reserve officials suggested potential future rate reductions, supported by a lower-than-expected November inflation rate.
US stocks reached all-time highs following positive jobs data, with the S&P 500 on track for its best annual return since 2019. The labor market remains stable, supporting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, while inflation data next week will be crucial for future policy decisions. Corporate highlights include Lululemon's significant stock gain, DocuSign's revenue forecast boost, and Victoria's Secret raising its outlook after strong sales.
US stocks are at record highs as markets await crucial jobs data that could influence the Federal Reserve's next policy move. The S&P 500 has gained 27.4% year-to-date, while recent labor reports indicate a resilient job market despite some softening trends. Fed officials signal further rate cuts are likely, supporting a favorable environment for equities as inflation moderates.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.215% as investors await key economic data, including the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, set for release at 10 a.m. ET. Market attention is also on comments from Fed officials regarding interest rate policy, with the November jobs report expected to show an increase of 214,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. This report will be crucial ahead of the Fed's upcoming meeting on December 17-18.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee stated that it would be “perfectly sensible” for the central bank to slow the pace of interest-rate cuts as it nears a neutral monetary policy setting. He emphasized that determining what is neutral versus restrictive requires time to observe economic conditions, suggesting that a more measured approach is warranted.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee indicated that the central bank is likely to continue lowering the fed funds rate unless there is clear evidence of economic overheating. He emphasized the need for a balanced approach that neither restricts nor promotes economic activity.
U.S. Treasury yields fell as investors assessed mixed economic data, with the 10-year yield down to 4.3982% and the 2-year at 4.3345%. Initial jobless claims showed a steady labor market, but rising continuing claims and a decline in manufacturing activity raised concerns. Insights from upcoming economic reports and Federal Reserve comments suggest potential for further interest rate cuts, though the pace may slow.
Asia-Pacific markets surged as investors reacted to Japan's October inflation data, with core CPI rising 2.3%, slightly above expectations. Japan's Nikkei 225 and Topix gained 0.54% and 0.51%, respectively, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 increased by 0.71%. In the U.S., major indexes also rose, with the Dow Jones up 462 points, as crude oil prices climbed following geopolitical tensions.
Austan Dean Goolsbee
People
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